Geosciences Dept. Seminar: Developing new earthquake scenarios

Abstract:

One of the most effective ways to minimize the impact of earthquake disaster on people and property is by pre-planned risk assessment and mitigation. As a part of an Israeli plan of preparation for a strong earthquake the GSI is developing advanced earthquake scenarios based on the HAZUS program. The program enables simulating geological hazards (such as landslides), estimating the damage to buildings and infrastructure facilities, including their functioning level after the earthquake, as well as the number of dead, injured and homeless people, amounts of debris, and the overall economic damage to the area. The scenarios are prepared on the national and local levels. The program was applied to a number of important events such as the national earthquake exercises “Turning Point 6” (October 2012) and “Turning Point 7” (June 2017). In October 2013, a “cluster” of weak earthquakes developed north of the Lake Kinneret, leading to real-time production of earthquake scenarios by the GSI. These scenarios provided a basis for the decision-making process at the Ministry of National Infrastructures in order to address the hazard. Lack of quantitative data on strong earthquakes is still a source for large uncertainty in earthquake damage calculations for the region. Several ongoing studies in the fields of geologic/seismic hazards, civil engineering, and infrastructure/population distribution are aimed to minimize these uncertainties. The results of the project will be forwarded to the Committee for Earthquake Preparation, to the Home Front Command, the Police and to every other emergency authority needing the scenarios.

Seminar Organizer: Prof. Eyal Haifetz