Dept. of Geosciences Colloquium: Unraveling sub-seasonal precipitation variability and predictability in the Middle East

Zoom: https://tau-ac-il.zoom.us/j/83800936221?pwd=dHQ5b0pYdWV3SzN1amNPanRQUnc4QT09

​Abstract:

Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel.

The seminar will offer a comprehensive analysis of the complex interplay between tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) and precipitation variability and predictability in the Middle East. I shall present the influence of key climate indices, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño Southern Oscillation, on sub-seasonal precipitation variability and predictability.1,2 I will further present the broader implications of tropical SST on the frequency of rain-bearing weather types in the Eastern Mediterranean, such as the 'Red Sea Trough' and 'Cyprus Lows.' Finally, I will address the challenges associated with predicting extreme precipitation events in the region, mainly focusing on the 'Wet' Red Sea Trough.3 Overall, the seminar will provide insights into the relationship between tropical SST and precipitation patterns in the Middle East, emphasizing the challenges and opportunities for enhancing sub-seasonal to seasonal weather and climate prediction in this vulnerable region.

References:

1. Hochman A, Plotnik T, Marra F, Shehter ER, Raveh-Rubin S, Magaritz-Ronen L. 2023. The sources of extreme precipitation predictability; the case of the ‘Wet’ Red Sea Trough. Weather and Climate Extremes 100564. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2023.100564

2. Hochman A, Gildor H. 2024. Synergistic Effects of ENSO and IOD on Middle-Eastern Sub-seasonal Precipitation Variability and Predictability. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (under review).

3. Hochman A, Shachar N, Gildor H. 2024. Unraveling Sub-Seasonal Precipitation Variability in the Middle East Via Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures. Nature Scientific Reports 14: 2919. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-53677-x

Event Organizer: Dr. Roy Barkan